When we are faced with making an important decision on whether to stay where we are and an opportunity to take a new path we often undertake an analysis of the choices. We are looking for a way to make a logical decision just as we have been taught.
However, when we are looking at the future there are no certainties; there are only probabilities, yet we treat our assumptions as if they are facts. We are using our powers of prediction to form our analysis. Even a simple plus and minus analysis uses prediction.
Another factor that logical decision making does not always take in consideration is the impact of the changes on the values we hold to be important to us. What values will be impacted, by how much, and their importance to us needs to added to the decision mix.
For example there may be only a limited number of possible advancements in our current field but the business is not likely to disappear has a value to us. A new career opportunity has more opportunities for advancement or diversity which also has a value to us. How much is up to us.
We could start with a simple plus and minus list or other decision making tool that includes all of our values that will be impacted by the decision. Then we need to add the probability of each plus and minus occurring. If we have no idea then we have some more thinking or research to do.
After rating our list and removing any which have a low possibility of happening and understanding the impact on our values we are in a better position to make a good choice for ourselves.